Current Event 4: World Population Expected to Reach 9.7 Billion

October 23rd 2015

Current unit of study: Unit 2

World Population Expected to Reach 9.7 Billion by 2050


Synopsis

As of right now, the global population is about 7.3 billion. Yet, by 2050 it is estimated that the world's population will end up growing to 9.7 billion according to a projection done by the United Nations. With a number like this, this new estimate has surpassed last year's estimate by around 150 million people. Based off of this study, we can tell that the greatest increase in population will happen in or around Africa, and Asia following closely behind in numbers. Despite this, the UN does admit that  there's an 80% chance that population could be as low as 9.4 or even as high as 10 billion by then. This is assumed by analyzing fertility patterns of the past and applying them to the future. This new number is not fully based off of fertility rates, as they have in fact been down in most places, but rather on longer life spans, as about 12% of the population is over the age of 60.

Analysis 

It's kind of scary to think that by the time I'm 50, the world's population will be exceeding the population we have now by 2.1 billion! It's remarkable! Yet at the same time, it's nice to know that it's not based off of total fertility rate (TFR) but rather the longer life spans being acquired. While reading this article, I found myself thinking back to our discussion in class on the "Do it for Denmark" campaign where they were basically bribing couples into having kids to increase Denmark's population and in return get a free fancy vacation and 3 years of baby supply. So it brought to mind... because the fertility rates have been going down could there be a sudden baby boom based off of things like the declining rate or fertility and the Denmark campaign? But then again, this estimation of having a population of 9.7 billion people isn't entirely based off of fertility rates, but rather longer life spans. But you never know...heck, I'd be easily bribed by the notion of a free vacation.

Link to original article:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/07/world-population-expected-to-reach-9-7-billion-by-2050/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=link_fb20150801news-datapointspopulation&utm_campaign=Content&sf11585780=1